FPL Ones to Watch – Post GW1

I will try and focus on players under 7m in this segment, logic being if a player is over 7m they are no longer one to watch, instead they are a known quality in the world of FPL. However, this may be subject to change in the future, lets see how we get on.

After GW1 the players I have highlighted are Mohammed Kudus, Bryan Mbeumo, Jeremy Doku and Morgan Rogers.

Mohammed Kudus – 6.5m

I thought Cash dealt well with Kudus in the 1st half but once Kudus was able to suss him out it became a bit of a mismatch, he was superb in the 2nd half. His cross at the end for Souček was pretty much perfect for him to attack and Souček should have scored – the chance registered an XG of 0.93. I was conscious of minutes being an issue with Sommerville coming in, but it was Bowen who made way, so Kudus played the full 90. It is early for data, but Kudus is joint 3rd for expected assists and with easier fixtures than Aston Villa and in a team who is getting used to a new managers style, I think his/West Ham’s best is to come.

Bryan Mbeumo – 7m

This has become a bit of an obvious one with Toney looking likely to move on in this transfer window. Mbeumo will become the penalty taker and main goal scoring threat in the Brentford team. Brentford have a tasty clash with Southampton at home in GW3, but this is sandwiched between Liverpool in GW2 and Man City in GW4. If he is on your radar, I would wait until after the Man City game to make the move as there is a fixture swing. Brentford will not face anyone above an FDR (Fixture Difficulty Rating) of 3 until Villa in GW14.

Jeremy Doku – 6.5m

He is someone who I have raved about over the summer, firmly believing this would be his year to light up the City team and become a nailed on starter. It also felt like Belgium’s tactics at the Euros was try and get the ball to Doku and hope he does something – highlighting how good he is.

However, one game in with only the Chelsea game to go on it is far too early to say he has done enough to become a nailed-on starter; he started the game by being outplayed by Cucurella which is a worrying sign in itself. Pep noticed and switched him to his favoured left-wing position, instantly it was like watching a different player and especially in the 2nd half he gave Gusto a torrid time. For all of his good work, he still needs to work on his end product, if he can add that he will become a serious star at City. Until then though, minutes/rotation still worries me but if you are brave enough to chance him starting against Ipswich at home, I think he could run riot.

Morgan Rogers – 5m

The cheapest of this week’s selection is Morgan Rogers. He popped up on lots of people’s templates at the start of the season, but I just wasn’t sure enough to include him. I preferred to get Emile Smith-Rowe for the additional 0.5m knowing he was going to be a regular starter at Fulham and also knowing that he is a class player. However, Rogers has come on leaps and bounds since I last watched him, there was one moment he took it on the half turn and ran at the West Ham defence in the 1st half and he left them for dead with Areola making a save. He looked quick, powerful and clever on the ball; despite Villa possessing a number of good players in the final third he may well hold onto his place. Note, Villa play Arsenal at home next game but from GW3 they play 4 consecutive fixtures with a difficulty rating of 2. Rogers is one to review in GW3 if unable to afford Watkins plus this should open up funds to use elsewhere.

To give a better comparison all pretty much play across the ‘front 4’ positions so I think a fair comparison would be XG (Expected Goals) & XA (Expected Assists) as from these positions we really want some output in FPL. I ran the numbers and plotted them in the below graph. It will be interesting to see how this changes post GW2 and a collection of further data. However, for now the standout for me is Mohammed Kudus, Mbeumo scored and Kudus has still achieved the same XG than him but Kudus also has a higher XA figure. The caveat of this is with Mbeumo on penalties, he could very easily bump up his XG so potentially a non-pen XG figure could become useful. The graph is a great representation of Doku’s output, he got into some great positions, but his delivery was so poor at times meaning it didn’t register as any XA. A mention to Rogers as well who has got an XG double that of the other 3 players, he definitely had the better shooting opportunities and will perhaps be disappointed that he didn't put one of them away.

Who is your one to watch?

• Kudus
• Mbeumo
• Doku
• Rogers